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Green, Maurice Liebenberg, Albert A. org/chapters/c2781 Chapter pages in book: (p. 25 - 138) SHORT- AND LONG-TERM SIMULATIONS WITH THE OBE ECONOMETRIC MODEL Department of Commerce GEORGE R. GREEN with MAURICE LIEBENBERG and ALBERT A. HIRSCH. 1 INTRODUCTION THIS paper reports procedures used and some results obtained from various simulations with versions of the OBE Econometric Model. The results presented are not comprehensive, some results being analyzed in another paper prepared for this Conference [21].

These results are consistent with Cooper's findings. On the other hand, the newer OBE Model outperforms the no-change and same-change naive models for the sample period (which — in contrast to the Wharton Model — includes the trend-dominated years, 1965—66), as distinct from Cooper's finding for the earlier version, which did, however, involve comparison with a more stringent naive model, Evans, Haitovsky, and Treyz also made multiperiod (six-quarter) cx post predictions with both the OBE and Wharton Models, including some postsample forecasts for the latter.

S. " Their analysis deals with newer versions of the Wharton and OBE Models than were studied by Cooper. In the case of the Wharton Model, the errors for one-quarter predictions during the sample period were generally larger than those of a naive model extrapolating the last observed quarterly change; and those for postsample forecasts were larger than a naive model of no-change. These results are consistent with Cooper's findings. On the other hand, the newer OBE Model outperforms the no-change and same-change naive models for the sample period (which — in contrast to the Wharton Model — includes the trend-dominated years, 1965—66), as distinct from Cooper's finding for the earlier version, which did, however, involve comparison with a more stringent naive model, Evans, Haitovsky, and Treyz also made multiperiod (six-quarter) cx post predictions with both the OBE and Wharton Models, including some postsample forecasts for the latter.

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